Skip to main content

Northamptonshire Analysis
The authority on Northamptonshire statistics

Demography JSNA

Introduction

Local authorities are required by The Local Government and Public Involvement in Health Act 2007 to produce a Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) of the health and wellbeing of their local community. Through the JSNA, local authorities are expected to consider the needs of their populations resulting in effective commissioning of services to meet these needs. Current policies aim to ensure that services are provided more flexibly, better supporting the needs of local communities, and are more effective at targeting the causes of health problems by intervening at much earlier stages. In order to do this, it is essential to have a clear understanding of the size, characteristics and needs of the local population. This chapter focuses on the changing size and characteristics of the Northamptonshire population. This document supersedes the 2014 Northamptonshire JSNA Demography chapter.   

Summary

Latest estimates (mid-2016, ONS) put Northamptonshire's population at 733,128 people (all ages) in 2016. 

It is estimated that the county has had above (national) average population growth in recent decades. In the last 30 years the population of Northamptonshire has increased by just over 30% compared to a 16.8% England average.

Most recently, the highest rates of population growth in the county have been in Corby (also high for the country) and, as such, the town is projected to experience the greatest percentage increase in the county over the next 10 years.

By 2024 it is project that the population of Northamptonshire will have grown by approximately 9%; faster than the projected 7.5% increase for England.

The greatest proportional increased by age are projected to be amongst the:

  • 70+ (post-war spike in birth rate, plus increase in life expectancy)
  • 55-65 year olds (the 1960s’ baby boom)
  • 30-39 year olds (children of the 1960s baby boomers)
  • 10-19 year olds (early 2010s spike in fertility rate)

 

In terms of dependent grouops, it is estimated that Northamptonshire has a slightly higher than England average proportion of 0-19 year olds and a similar proportion of people aged 65+ (2016). However, the proportion of young people aged 0-19 within the population is projected to decrease slightly (despite numbers of young people increasing), whereas the proportion of 65 year olds is projected to increase in the next 10 to 20 years.

 The latest years’ worth of data (2015-2016) estimates that the county has had above (England) average percentage population increase in all three components of population change; net within UK migration, net international migration and net births and deaths.

The latest data (2015) shows the live birth rate as being slightly above the England average (12.52 versus 12.10), driven by well above average rates in Corby, Kettering and Northampton. Northamptonshire’s General Fertility Rate has been consistently just above the England average for the last 10 years.

There has been a declining rate of mortality across Northamptonshire in recent decades. Life expectancy at birth and age 65 in Northamptonshire is similar to the national average for both males and females (2013-15 latest) and healthy life expectancy is above average.

It is important to note that life expectancy is 8.8 years lower for men and 7.0 years lower for women in the most deprived areas of Northamptonshire than in the least deprived areas. Overall, the county has a low level of deprivation, but small pockets are cause for concern with persistent issues affecting some parts of the county, including below average earnings and skill levels.

With regards to health deprivation and disability (IMD 2015)  Northamptonshire ranks 94th out of 152 upper-tier local authorities, putting Northamptonshire in the 2nd (best) quartile.  However, Northamptonshire sits 8th from the bottom out of 27 English counties.  Northampton and Corby have the highest concentration of the most deprived Lower Super Output Areas with regards to health deprivation and disability.

In Northamptonshire, the rate of 'early deaths' and deaths from causes considered preventable is similar to the England averages (2013-15 latest). However, the variance within the county is significant. In Corby, the rates are significantly higher than the England averages with two exceptions relating to cardiovascular disease for females, and cancer and liver disease for males (2013-15).

Also important drivers of population growth are net internal migration and net international migration. It is estimated that net internal migration has grown in importance in the last few years (to mid-2016), having been below average, and is now on a par with the average for English counties and above the England average.

It is estimated that net international migration has become the greatest driver of population growth in Northamptonshire in recent years (to mid-2016), consistent with the national trend, but above average compared to other counties. The vast majority (89.9% in year to end Mar -17) of National Insurance number allocations to overseas nationals within Northamptonshire have been to EU nationals in recent years, well above the England average.

It is relevant to note that between the two Census years, 2001 and 2011 (latest data on ethnicity), the biggest change in the ethnic structure of the county occurred within the ‘White Other’ group increasing as a proportion of the population from a below average position of 1.8% up to an average 4.7% (186% increase).

  

Population Size and Characteristics

Latest estimates (mid-2016, ONS) put Northamptonshire’s population at 733,128 people (all ages) in 2016, up from 723,026 in mid-2105 (or +1.4%) and 691,952 in 2011 (Census year) (or +6.0%).

It is estimated that the county has had above (national) average population growth in recent decades, to varying degrees across the county (see table below). In the last 10 years (2007 to 2016), the population of Northamptonshire has grown by an estimated 9.1% versus a 7.6% England average.  In the last 30 years, the population of Northamptonshire has increased by just over 30% compared to a 16.8% England average.

30 Year Population Growth

Most recently, the highest rates of population growth in the county have been in Corby (also high for the country) and, as such, the town is projected to experience the greatest percentage increase in the county over the next 10 years.

Population Forecast

In the late 1980s, the UK population began to grow again when the 1960s’ baby boomers were having children. Recent uplifts in population growth have generally coincided with an increase in the number of countries holding EU membership (Source: Overview of the UK population: March 2017 (latest), Office for National Statistics), and of course people are living longer.

For further information on future UK trends, see: National Population Projections: 2014-based Statistical Bulletin, ONS.

By 2024 (10 years from 2014 base – latest data), it is projected that the population of Northamptonshire will have grown by approximately 9% to 778,600 people; faster than the projected 7.5% increase for England. Corby is projected to have the 5th fastest population growth in the country at 16.7% (11,000 people); fastest outside of London (see below).

Population Projections by District

It is important to note that the projections are demographic, trend-based projections indicating the likely size and age structure of the future population based on observations over a 5 or 6 year period leading up to the base year (2014). Population projections do have limitations and become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried into the future. According to the ONS, they do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.

For example, local intelligence (November 2016) indicates that there are currently more than 59,000 new houses from major housing developments (Sustainable Urban Extensions only) being planned up to 2019 in Northamptonshire, which would represent a 19% increase in the current number of domestic properties and if realised, could in some areas, translate into an even higher rate of population growth than forecasted within official estimates.  The development is not uniform across the county and would affect different areas to varying degrees, from a high of 35.2% increase in domestic properties in Corby Borough to a low of 10.3% increase in East Northamptonshire.

House price increases

Please also note that the latest population projections (ONS) were published prior to the referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU and, indeed, prior to the UK Government’s new Immigration Bill’s passage through Parliament to allow the UK to end the free movement of EU citizens into the UK, which could affect different parts of the county to varying degrees in so far as the projections are concerned and components of population change (see section 2. Components of Population Change).

 

Age and Gender

The population pyramid below shows the age and sex of the population in Northamptonshire in mid-2016.

Population Pyramid

Source: Population Estimates Analysis Tool, ONS

According to the ONS, several events have affected the structure of the UK population in 2016. These are reflected in the Northamptonshire population:

  •  a larger number of 68 year olds due to the spike in births after the end of World War 2;
  • the effects of the 1960s baby boom now seen in the larger number of people in their mid-40s to mid-50s and the children of the baby boomers now seen in the higher number of people in their 20s;
  • low fertility in the 1970s and early 2000s now seen in lower populations of people in their late 30s and early teens;
  • the group aged 20 to 35 in 2016 has increased in size when compared with 2005, when they were aged 10 to 25, which can only have been generated by adding to the population through immigration.

 (Source: Overview of the UK population: March 2017 (latest), Office for National Statistics).

 This is projected into future years with the greatest proportional increases projected to be amongst the:

  • 70+ (post-war spike in birth rate, plus increase in life expectancy)
  • 55-65 year olds (the 1960s’ baby boom)
  • 30-39 year olds (children of the 1960s baby boomers)
  • 10-19 year olds (spike in fertility rate in early 2010s)

Population Project by Age

In terms of dependent groups, it is estimated that Northamptonshire has a slightly higher proportion of 0-19 year olds within its population compared to the national average (24.7% versus 23.7% England average) and a similar proportion of people aged 65+ (17.5% versus 17.9% England average) (2016 mid-year estimate).

In future years (to 2024), although the numbers of people will of course increase, the proportion of young people aged 0-19 within the population is projected to decrease slightly, whereas the proportion of 65 year olds is projected to increase.

Dependent Groups

By 2024 it is projected by the ONS that the number of people aged 65+ will be 28.2% higher than in 2014 (base-year) (see graph below). This compares to a 20.4% increase nationally (England average), however the proportion of over 65s within the population is projected to be similar to the national (England) average (see above).

Population Forecast - 65 and Over

There are many challenges associated with an ageing population, not least for the individuals concerned. Quality of life, susceptibility to illness, keeping active and social isolation are just some of the issues facing the elderly in society.  Keeping people active, independent and engaged at all ages is important, and the advantages for all in promoting and supporting healthy lifestyle choices, social inclusion and prevention strategies for older people are clear (Source: Northamptonshire Older People’s Needs Assessment, BIPM, NCC 2015).

For further information, see Northamptonshire Older People’s Needs Assessment, BIPM, NCC 2015 and Adults with Disabilities Needs Assessment, BIPM, NCC, 2017.

In addition, while living longer is a cause for celebration, an ageing population may result in fewer people of working age to support those of pension age (Source: Overview of the UK population: March 2017 (latest), Office for National Statistics).

Within the young population, it is projected that there will be an additional 14,500 0-19 year olds by 2024 (+8.2%), similar to the England average of 7.8% (ONS population projections, 2014-based). However, stark differences amongst 0-19 year olds are projected, with an above average % increase in 15-19 year olds projected for Northamptonshire and below average % increase in 0-4 year olds (see graph below).

Population Forecase 0-19

 

Ethnicity

Ethnicity Summary

The Equality Duty Information Report for Northamptonshire 2017 details the latest data (2011 Census) with regards to the ethnic structure of Northamptonshire. It shows that within the county, the majority of the population in 2011 (91.5%) fell within the White ethnic group.  The remaining 8.5% are residents who describe themselves as Asian (4%), Black (2.5%), of Mixed Ethnic origin (2%), and those of Other Ethnic group (0.4%).  It shows that since the previous Census in 2001 there had been an increase in non-white ethnic groups of 3.5%.

It is also relevant to note a change within the population who describe themselves as ‘white’. This is where the biggest change has occurred. A more rapid change in the number and proportion of those who describe themselves as ‘White Other’ becomes evident between 2001 and 2011.

‘White Other’ means not White British, Irish or Gypsy or Irish Traveller and therefore captures change within the predominantly ‘White’ EU population.

Ethnicity - % of total population

Between 2001 and 2011 the proportion of the population who described themselves as ‘White Other’ (see pie-charts above) increased from a below (England) average position of 1.8% up to 4.7% (similar to the 2011 England average). This represented a 186% increase for Northamptonshire, versus a 86% England average increase.  This varied significantly across the county, with a high of + 456% in Corby and low of +18% in South Northamptonshire.

For more information on where non-white ethnic groups live in the county, ethnicity of carers, the number of people for whom English is not their main language and breakdown of religions in the county, and more, please see the Equality Duty Information Report for Northamptonshire County Council 2017 (‘General Resources’).

Recent uplifts in population growth in the UK have generally coincided with an increase in the number of countries holding EU membership. Therefore, as described later on (see: 2.4 Components of population change/ International migration below), this starts to mark an important transformation within the Northamptonshire community and has relevance in terms of understanding health needs and trends of the population and, arguably, the influence of a wider range of cultural norms.

For information on the health needs of migrants, see: Profile of migrant health data in the East Midlands, September 2016, Public Health England

 

Rurality

Northamptonshire has an estimated population of 733,128. Approximately 31% of the county’s population lives in the densely populated town of Northampton. In total, 68.8% of the county’s population live in ‘urban city and town’ areas, 20.1% in areas classified as ‘rural town and fringe’ and 11.1% in ‘rural villages and dispersed’ (see graph below) (source: ONS).

Population and DensityLSOA by urban/ruralA higher proportion of children live in the more urban areas than in the most rural areas (see graph below). On the reverse, a higher proportion of people aged 65 and over live in the most rural areas compared to the most urban areas, which brings with it challenges in relation to access to services, delivery of services and dispersed populations.

  Resident Population by Age and Urban or Rural

For more information and resources, visit: Northamptonshire Analysis; Locality Profiles  for links to the Rural Services Network Observatory, the State of Rural Public Services Report (Rural England), and more.

 

Prosperity

An analysis of significant social factors and population behaviour provides insight into the different types of people and their socio-economic status in the county (CACI Acorn, 2015).  28.6% of the county’s households have been categorised as ‘Affluent Achievers’, followed by 28.2% ‘Comfortable Communities’ and 19.9% ‘Financially Stretched’.

Acorn

 According to the Index of Multiple Deprivation (2015) 113,862 people (16.1%) in Northamptonshire live in LSOAs (Lower Super Output Areas) that are classed as deprived (2015).  The county is ranked 106 out of 152 county and unitary authorities (where 1 is the most deprived), with low levels of deprivation overall 

Deprivation

However, there are small pockets which are cause for concern, which fall primarily in Northampton, Corby, Wellingborough and Kettering. 29 of the county’s 422 LSOAs are amongst the 10% most deprived in England; 16 are in Northampton, while Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough contain 4 each and Daventry contains 1 (see map below). 2 LSOAs in Northampton are amongst the 1% most deprived in England. It is worth noting that deprived localities contain higher proportions of children (see: Northamptonshire Analysis, Census & MYEs) and non-White British residents than non-deprived areas.

IMD

It is worth noting that 14 LSOAs in Northamptonshire fall within the 10% most deprived in England in the 2015 Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI).  9 of these LSOAs are in Northampton, with two apiece in Kettering and Wellingborough and one in Corby.  26 LSOAs in Northamptonshire fall within the 10% most deprived LSOAs in England in the 2015 Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index, half are in Northampton and 15% apiece in Wellingborough and Corby (ONS, IMD 2015).

For further information, visit: https://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/key-datasets/deprivation

Correspondingly, the average earnings of Corby residents are the lowest in the county, followed by Northampton. In 5 out of the 7 Northamptonshire Districts and Boroughs average earnings of residents are below the England average and therefore the Northamptonshire average earnings are below the England average, as are adult qualification levels above NVQ1. This has an important bearing on job types and earnings and therefore overall financial prosperity.

Earnings

The Job Seekers Allowance Claimant rate remains consistently just below or similar to the England average (latest ONS data from May 2017: 0.9% Northamptonshire and 1.1% England averages taken from www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk ). 

 

Components of Population Change

As evidenced by the ONS, ‘there are 4 ways that the (UK) population changes: people are born, they die, they move in or they move out’. […] (Source: Overview of the UK Population: February 2016, ONS).

The latest population estimates from the ONS (mid-2016), show the components that make up the growth in the population within the last year’s worth of data (see below).

Population increase by components of change

This varies greatly within the county, as reflected in projected population changes (see opposite), which are based on observations over a 5 or 6 year period leading up to the base year.

Components of Project Population Change

In Corby, where the greatest population growth is projected, natural change (difference between births and deaths) is projected to be the greatest component (likely influenced by Corby’s highest in county fertility rate and lowest in county proportion of its population over 65), alongside fairly high levels of both net International and net within UK migration (see above). At the other end of the scale with regards to projected population growth are Daventry and East Northamptonshire, where the relatively low proportion of natural change is likely due to relatively low fertility rates and relatively high proportions of older people.

Due to the differences in the projected components of population change amongst the Districts and Boroughs, the effect of a change in immigration policy would likely be different across the county. The effect could be two-fold; firstly on potential volume of international migration into the county, and secondly on the birth rate (see 2.1 Births). Please also note planned new housing developments in the county.

 

Births

Since 1955 (except in 1976) the number of births in the UK has been higher than the number of deaths. This natural change has resulted in the growth of the population (Source: Overview of the UK Population: March 2017, ONS).

In Northamptonshire, the live birth rate per 1,000 population in 2015 (latest data) was slightly above the England average (12.52 versus 12.10), driven by well above average rates in Corby, Kettering and Northampton ‘offsetting’ below average rates in Daventry and South Northamptonshire (see below).

Live Birth Rates

In the UK, the number of live births each year has varied over the last 60 years. Most noteworthy is the 1960s baby boom, the “echo” of baby boomers having children and latterly, births peaking again in the UK in 2012 (Source: Overview of the UK Population March 2017, ONS).

The last 10 years’ worth of data on the General Fertility Rate (see below) shows Northamptonshire consistently just above the England average, with the highest rates in the county in Corby, Kettering, Wellingborough and Northampton and lowest rates in East Northamptonshire, South Northamptonshire and Daventry.

Ferility Rate

Consequently, it is estimated that Corby, Kettering, Northampton and Wellingborough have a higher proportion of children aged 0-4 and 5-9 than the England average (mid-2016 – see graph below). In contrast Daventry, East Northamptonshire and South Northamptonshire have below average proportions of children aged 0-4.  Accordingly, there is projected to be a greater % increase in 10-14 and 15-19 year olds than younger age groups in the county by 2024. The % increase in 10-14 and 15-19 year olds by 2024 is also projected to be above the England average (see 1.1 Age and Gender).

Proportion of Population by area and age group

Current and recent birth rates are an important factor in calculating service demand of children’s services, in particular school places. Pupil projections based on live birth data and current numbers of pupils on-roll (and not including further in-migration and new housing development), show how increasing numbers of births, coupled with past in-migration, are affecting growth in the young population (see below).

Primary School Roll

As mentioned earlier, significant changes in birth rates during the last century, as influenced by key events, have affected the age structure of the population today.

It is also interesting and relevant to the county to note the effect of international migration on the birth rate:

In addition to the direct effect of net migration on the size of the population, current and past international migration also has indirect effects on the size and structure of the population: [for example] migrants tend to arrive as young adults aged in their 20s to early 40s and they change the numbers of births and deaths in the UK’ (Source: Overview of the UK Population: February 2016, ONS).

In 2015 (latest data) the percentage of births to non-UK born mothers in Northamptonshire rose to 27.0%, an increase of 1.4%-points on the previous year and 13.3%-points since 2005 (Source: Place Statistical Bulletin, Migration Update (2015 data), January 2016 – Migration section).

 This figure is high for the East Midlands but a little under the national average (28.7%). However, this varies across the county. In Northampton, the percentage of births to non-UK born mothers in 2015 was 37.5% and in Corby it was 33.5% (up 21.8%-points since 2005; second highest increase in England), demonstrating international migration as being a significant contributor to birth rates in particular areas of the county. By far the highest group of babies born to non-UK born mothers are those born to mothers from new EU countries (post 2004), which is consistent with what is known about international migration into the county (see: International migration).

For more information on births to non-UK born mothers, please see the Equality Duty Information Report for Northamptonshire County Council 2017 (‘General Resources’) and Place Statistical Bulletin, Migration Update (2015 data), January 2016 (Migration section).

 

Deaths

The population is growing partly because people are living longer. This, coupled with the existing age structure whereby people born in the 1960s baby boom are entering older ages, has resulted in a rise in the proportion of the population that is 65 years or older.

For example, in the UK, the median age for the population rose from 33.9 years in 1974 to 40.0 years in 2014, a rise of 6.1 years (Source: Overview of the UK Population: February 2016, ONS).

Mortality Rate

The below graph indicates a declining rate of mortality across Northamptonshire in recent decades. Please note that the recent slight rise in deaths is in line with the UK trend and mostly affected by the increasing size of the population (Source: ONS).

Change in levels of Mortality

Life expectancy

Correspondingly, data estimating life expectancy indicates an increase in life expectancy in the county, as is the case nationally. In 2013-15, life expectancy at birth in Northamptonshire remained similar to the national average for both males and females (see below). Life expectancies at 65 for males and females were also both similar to the England average and have seen significant increases in recent years (compared to the 2009-11 baseline).

Life Expectancy at Birth

This varies significantly across the county from a high of 80.9 in Daventry to a low of 76.5 in Corby for males and high of 84.9 in South Northamptonshire and low of 80.8 in Corby for females in 2013-15. Corby is well below the national average and ranks 8th worst in the country for male and 14th worst for female life expectancy at birth (for further inforamtion, see: Northamptonshire Analysis,Life Expectancy data suite ).

Life Expectancy at Birth in years

It is important to note that life expectancy is 8.8 years lower for men and 7.0 years lower for women in the most deprived areas of Northamptonshire than in the least deprived areas (Source: Public Health England, Northamptonshire Health Profile, 2017).  

Healthy life expectancy (HLE) represents the number of years a person would expect to live in good health based on current mortality rates and prevalence of self-reported good health. Interestingly, in 2013-15, Northamptonshire’s HLE at birth for males and females was significantly higher than the England average. The HLE for males was 65.5 years compared to 63.4 nationally and the HLE for females was 67.0 years compared to 64.1 nationally.

(Source: Public Health Outcomes Framework Northamptonshire Report - see Previous PHOF Profiles on Northamptonshire Analysis, May 2017, BIPM, NCC)

For more information on what affects an area’s healthy life expectancy, see: http://visual.ons.gov.uk/what-affects-an-areas-healthy-life-expectancy/

Index of Multiple Deprivation Health Domain

The Health Deprivation and Disability Domain within the Index of Multiple Deprivation (ONS) measures the risk of premature death and the impairment of quality of life through poor physical or mental health. The domain measures morbidity, disability and premature mortality, using the following indicators: years of potential life lost; comparative illness and disability ratio; acute morbidity (emergency admission to hospital); mood and anxiety disorders (mood and anxiety disorders, hospital episodes data, suicide mortality data and health benefits data).

IMD National Ranking

Amongst England’s upper-tier local authorities (152), Northamptonshire compares relatively well, ranking 94th (1 being the worst and 152 the best), putting Northamptonshire in the 2nd (best) quartile.

However, when compared to other English counties only (arguably greater comparability), Northamptonshire sits 8th from the bottom out of 27 (see below) putting the county towards the bottom of the 3rd quartile. Consistent with other related datasets there is significant variance within the county.

Within national rankings, Corby is the 46th most deprived Local Authority in England, and South Northamptonshire 309th (out of 326 Local Authorities) with regards to health deprivation and disability (morbidity, disability and premature mortality).

IMD National Health Deprivation and Disability Domain

The data also shows where within the county’s Districts and Boroughs (see below) are the pockets which are most cause for concern with regards to health deprivation and disability (morbidity, disability and premature mortality). Correspondingly, within the county, Northampton and Corby have the highest concentration of the most deprived Lower Super Output Areas with regards to health deprivation and disability.

IMD Map - Health Deprivation and Disability Domain

See IMD 2015 map and www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/key-datasets/deprivation for more details on levels of deprivation in Northamptonshire.

For more detailed information on health and disability in Northamptonshire, please refer to the relevant JSNA chapters on www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/jsna or Contact Us via the website.

For more detailed information on the socio-economic characteristics of Northamptonshire, its Districts and Boroughs, visit: www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk (Economy) or Contact Us via the website.

Early Deaths

Early Deaths

All the under 75 mortality rates ‘early deaths’ for Northamptonshire are similar to the England averages. Changes to under 75 mortality rates in Northamptonshire since the baseline years have not been statistically significant, except for the mortality rate for cancer, which has decreased significantly from 151.3 per 100,000 population in 2009-11 to 136.0 per 100,000 population in 2013-15.

The mortality rate from causes considered preventable in 2013-15 (latest data) in Northamptonshire is also similar to the England average at a rate of 183.7 per 100,000 population compared to 184.5 England average. The Northamptonshire rate has decreased significantly from the baseline of 200.1 per 100,000 population in 2009-11 (Source: Public Health Outcomes Framework Northamptonshire Report - see Previous PHOF Profiles on Northamptonshire Analysis, May 2017, BIPM, NCC).

However, the variance within the county is significant. For example, in Corby, the mortality rates from causes considered preventable have been significantly higher than the national average since the 2009-11 baseline. In 2013-15 Corby had significantly higher under 75 mortality rates than the England averages in all diseases and cohorts except cardiovascular disease for females, and cancer and liver disease for males.  The significantly higher mortality rates for persons under 75 in Corby have been persistent over time (Source: Public Health Outcomes Framework Corby Report - see Previous PHOF Profiles on Northamptonshire Analysis, May 2017, BIPM, NCC).

For more information, please refer to the most recent Public Health Outcomes Framework reports (‘Previous PHOF Reports’) for Northamptonshire, its Districts and Boroughs.

 

Internal Migration

Internal migration (within UK) data estimates flows between local authorities and is calculated by the ONS for the purpose of population estimates. As shown earlier (section 2. Components of population change), it is estimated that internal (within UK) migration accounted for a smaller proportion of the county’s population change than net international migration and natural change and had not been a significant driver of population change in recent years. However, latest population data (2016 mid-year estimates) estimates an increasing net within UK migration in Northamptonshire, contributing to above average population growth when compared to the England average, and now on a par with the English counties average.

Population Change due to internal migration

As shown earlier, this varies across the county. It is estimated that East Northamptonshire and Daventry had the highest net internal migration in 2016, whilst Northampton had negative net internal migration.

For more information, see: Population Estimates Analysis Tool (ONS) and Migration within UK (ONS)

 

International Migration

Recent uplifts in population growth have generally coincided with an increase in the number of countries holding EU membership (Source: Overview of the UK population: March 2017 (latest), Office for National Statistics).

The latest population data (ONS, 2016-MYE) estimates that net international migration accounted for nearly half of the 1.4% increase in the Northamptonshire population between mid-2016 and mid-2015 (see section 2. Components of population change). Estimated higher than average percentage increases in all three components of population change (within UK migration, International migration and natural change) have contributed to the county’s above average population growth within the latest years’ worth of data (mid-2015 to mid-2016).

 

Long-Term International Migration

 Over the longer-term, from mid 2009-10 to mid 2014-15 (latest published data), Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) inflow in Northamptonshire has increased at the same time as LTIM outflow diminished (see graph below) as is the national trend. This coincides with both an uplift in economic conditions and key dates marking the ending of transitional restrictions for workers from new EU member states (i.e. 2011 for 8 of the countries joining in 2004 and 2014 for Bulgaria and Romania who joined in 2007).  Also of note are policy and legislative changes affecting migration to the UK.

Over the last twelve years, net long term international migration in the county has totaled 31,864 persons, although we cannot ascertain how many of them are still living in the county (Source: Place Statistical Bulletin, Migration Update (2015 data), January 2016 – Migration section).

Long Term International Migration

In 2014-15 Northamptonshire had a NET long-term migration rate of 5.8 per thousand population, slightly ahead of the national average of 5.6/1,000 pop. This rate varies significantly within the county (see graph opposite). This result ranked Northamptonshire 4th highest of 33 the English and Met Counties.

It is also worth noting that in 2014-15 Northamptonshire remains the county where the growth in NET long term international migration has had the greatest numerical impact over the five year period from the base figure of 2009-10 to 2014-15; in that of the 33 English/Met Counties Northamptonshire has received the highest growth in its rate of net long-term international migration per 1,000 resident population over that time (increase of 4.2 per 1,000 resident population versus 1.7 England average).

NET Long-Term International Migration

For more information, see the Local Area Migration Suite dataview on www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk and ONS, International Migration

It is worth noting that migrants into and out of the UK tend to be aged 20 to 36, “traditional working age” (Source: Overview of the UK Population: March 2017, ONS).

It is also worth noting that UK migration data, published up to the end of 2016 (not yet available at lower levels), shows that net migration to the UK has fallen to about 248,000 in 2016, down 84,000 from the previous year. According to the ONS, the fall was due to more people leaving, especially EU citizens, as well as fewer people arriving (Source: East Midlands Strategic Migration Partnership Briefing, June 2017).

 

National Insurance Number Allocations (NINos)

Updated more regularly are National Insurance Numbers (NINo) allocations, which provide data up to the end of March 2017, and therefore include data following the EU Referendum.

NINos are allocated to adult overseas nationals (minimum age 17) and are generally required by any overseas national looking to work or claim benefits/ tax credits in the UK, including the self-employed or students working part time. Therefore, please note that NINos can be allocated to short-term migrants as well as long-term migrants.

In the year to end of March 2017, 13,052 NI numbers were allocated to overseas nationals within Northamptonshire, 89.9% to EU nationals - albeit approximately 1%-point lower than a year previously - versus a 75.5% England average. Countywide, this is a 3.9% decrease on the year to end of December 2016, not quite matching the overall England decrease of 5.0%. However, compared to the same period a year ago (year to end March 2016) it is a 2.1% increase versus a 5.1% decrease for England.

Bucking the national trend, in 2016-17 both Corby and South Northamptonshire have logged their highest recorded number of allocations of the last six financial years.

For more information, see the National Insurance Allocations to Adult Overseas Nationals dataview, within the Population and Census theme on Northamptonshire Analysis.

For information on the health needs of migrants, see: Profile of migrant health data in the East Midlands, September 2016, Public Health England.

NiNos

 

Key Contacts

For any support or further information on Demography then please contact the Business Intelligence & Project Management Team by e-mail at placeinformation@northamptonshire.gov.uk

 

References

Northamptonshire Joint Strategic Needs Assessments, Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council

Northamptonshire Health Profile, Public Health England, 2017

Public Health Profiles (available for each LA), Public Health England, 2017

Overview of the UK population: March 2017, Office for National Statistics, 2017

National Population Projections: 2014-based Statistical Bulletin, ONS, 2015

Population Estimates Analysis Tool, Office for National Statistics, 2017

Older People Joint Strategic Needs Assessment for Northamptonshire, Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council, September 2015

JSNA Adults with Disabilities Needs Assessment, Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council, 2017

The Changing UK Population, Office for National Statistics, January 2015

Equality Duty Information Report for Northamptonshire 2017, Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council, 2017

Profile of migrant health data in the East Midlands, Public Health England, September 2016

Overview of the UK Population: February 2016, Office for National Statistics, 2016

Place Statistical Bulletin 2016-02: Migration Update 2015 Data (NCC Short Report.pdf), Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council, February 2016

Public Health Outcomes Framework Northamptonshire Report, Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council, May 2017 (‘Previous PHOF Profiles’)

What affects an area’s healthy life expectancy? Office for National Statistics, June 2017

English Indices of Deprivation 2015: Analysis of the Results for Northamptonshire (NCC Report), Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council, 2015

Policy and legislative changes affecting migration to the UK: timeline, Home Office, May 2017

International migration information and statistics, Office for National Statistics

Migration within UK information and statistics, Office for National Statistics

Local Area Migration Suite dataview, www.NorthamptonshireAnalysis.co.uk, Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council

East Midlands Strategic Migration Partnership Briefing, East Midlands Strategic Partnership, June 2017.

Deprivation Suite, www.NorthamptonshireAnalysis.co.uk  Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council

Population and Census Suite, www.NorthamptonshireAnalysis.co.uk  Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council

Economy Suite, www.NorthamptonshireAnalysis.co.uk  Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council

Health & Wellbeing Suite, www.NorthamptonshireAnalysis.co.uk  Business Intelligence and Project Management, Northamptonshire County Council

NINo registrations from different world areas by Local Authority 2016/2017: Interactive map, DWP

 

Full JSNA Chapter PDF Download

To download  the full detail on this page please click on the link provided below

 

Accessibility  ·  Site Map  ·  Contact Us  ·  Legal  ·  Feedback  ·  About  · 
* * * *

InstantAtlas™ Server (IAS) v6.6.0