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Northamptonshire Analysis
The authority on Northamptonshire statistics


  • 08 June 2018
    Population Projections - more info
    Alongside the main spreadsheet showing the 2016-MYE-Based Population Projections for Northamptonshire, you can now find the spreadsheet showing the Constituent Parts of the ONS Population Projection calculations.

    This additional spreadsheet covers :
    Projected Births by Age of Mother and Gender of Child;
    Projected Deaths by Age and Gender;
    Projected Internal (within England) Migration by Age and Gender;
    Projected Cross Border (within UK) Migration by Age and Gender;
    Projected International Migration by Age and Gender.

    Please see the Additional Information tab within the new spreadsheet for links to the ONS Methodology papers and other useful information.
  • 05 June 2018
    Active Library Card Users Update
    The latest dataset showing the number of Active Library Card Users by geographical area has been uploaded to Northamptonshire Analysis. This covers the period for the year to end March 2018. Both the Active Users Dataview and the separate Spreadsheet showing Out-of-County Users can be found under the Environmental and Living Theme within the Leisure and Libraries sub-theme. The spreadsheet is found under the Resources tab.

    The total number of Active Library Card Users (all age bands and locations) has dropped again in the year to end March 2018 after a slight hiatus in the downward slide in the year to end September 2017.   The total (12 monthly) number of NLIS Active Users now stands at 74,625 - this is 4.9% less that at the same time last year and a massive 24.2% decrease over the last four years.

    At MSOA geographical level, just one MSOA shows an increase in Active Library Card Users over the last four years, that being Daventry 005 covering the Moulton, Holcot, Walgrave area;   while two further MSOAs have decreases of less than 10% .... these are Northampton 0029 covering Upton, Berrywood and Swan Valley (where further housebuilding has been taking place) and Daventry 001 covering the villages spread from just south of Market Harborough down to Yelvertoft.   See maps by clicking on the small white i in a blue circle next to the MSOA name in the dataview table.

    Still at MSOA geography, the worst five decreases in Active Library Card Users over the last four years (all with decreases of greater than 40%) can all be found in Corby ... they are MSOAs Corby 006, Corby 005, Corby 004, Corby 001 and Corby 008.

    The four year percentage changes (March 2018 v. March 2014) in Active Library Card Users by age band (all localities) are as follows :
    Young Adults (Aged 11-17) : increase of 15.3%
    Child (Aged 5-10) : decrease of 11.5%
    Early Years Child (Aged 0-4) : decrease of 28.3%
    Adults (18 & Above) : decrease of 31.0%.
  • 04 June 2018
    Migration (NINos) Update
    The latest DWP figures for the allocation of National Insurance Numbers (NINos) to Overseas Nationals across the county have been uploaded to Northamptonshire Analysis. These can be found in the NINos Dataview within the Population & Census Theme (found under the Migration sub-theme).

    For the second quarterly release (rolling 12 month) data there has been a drop in the total number of NINo allocations to overseas nationals across Northamptonshire. The figure for the year to end March 2018 was 11968 allocations. This finally follows the national downward trend which started two years earlier back in September 2015.

    Countywide the number of EU15 and EU8 nationals allocated NINos continues in a downward slide. The number of EU2 nationals allocated NINos also decreased over the last two quarterly (rolling 12 month) results, but is yet to be a definitive trend given previous ups and downs after the initial dramatic rise post 2014.   As of the year to end March 2018, EU2 nationals make up 59.3% of the county's total NINo allocations - still an increasing proportion. The Office for National Statistics state that EU2 nationals across the country as a whole tend to be short term migrants arriving to work in the construction, agricultural and manufacturing industries.

    Interestingly (although much lower figures), the number of Non-EU nationals allocated NINos in Northamptonshire in the year to end March 2018 at 1470 is the county's highest we have recorded on Northamptonshire Analysis (... bearing in mind the rolling-12 months data was uploaded annually from March 2012 to March 2014 and has been quarterly since March 2015).

    All the county's boroughs and districts with the exception of Daventry show at least two consecutive data releases with decreasing numbers of NINo allocations to overseas nationals.

    Data is also available at MSOA level.

  • 01 June 2018
    2016-Base ONS Population Projections
    A spreadsheet containing the Northamptonshire Population Projections from the Office of National Statistics' 2016-MYE-Base release is now available on Northamptonshire Analysis in the RESOURCES section of the Population & Census theme. The projections are available at Borough/District, County, Regional and National levels (although please note for the single year of age projections and the old-age dependency ratios, county level figures have had to be aggregated from the Borough/District stats).   Additionally, the 5 year age band projections are available for our basket of Economic Comparators.

    The projections run for 25 years up to 2041.   The spreadsheet contains graphs showing the change in population and ranks growth over 10 years and 25 years across the country as a whole, highlighting the rankings of Northamptonshire's authorities.

    The ONS have made improvements to their methodology with this 2016-based release (for more information see the ONS QMI document Section 6, link at the end of this newsitem).   Please remember these are PROJECTIONS NOT PREDICTIONS and that the ONS warns that "projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward" (2016 National Report, Section 3).

    Some key points are :
    ....   Northamptonshire's total population is projected to grow by 16.4% over the next ten years compared to 12.1% across England as a whole. This ranks Northamptonshire as the English County with the second highest projected growth over this time period (behind Kent).
    ....   Amongst the county's boroughs and districts, 10-year projected growth percentages range from 31.5% in Corby (second only to Tower Hamlets) to 11.2% in Wellingborough.
    ....   Northamptonshire's proportion of persons aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 17.6% in 2016 to 20.5% in 2026 and further to 25.5% in 2041.
    .... The ONS state that by 2026, 97 BDU authorities are projected to log at least a quarter of their population as over-65. Northamptonshire's boroughs and districts are not in this group but Daventry and East Northamptonshire are both not far off with a projected 24.4%.
    ....   Compared to some other English & Met Counties, Northamptonshire does not have a high Old Age Dependency Ratio (in 2016 ranked 26th of 33 with an OADR of 302.9, just 0.1 above the national average). Over the next ten years, however, Northamptonshire's projected growth for this indicator is the 11th highest amongst the English & Met counties, but longer term growth to 2041 is slightly lower down the rankings in 13th place.

    Useful Links :
    ONS National Statistical Bulletin 2016-Base
    ONS Quality & Methodology Information
    ONS 2016 Methodology Document
    ONS Frequently Asked Questions
    Links to all these are also available in the metadata attached to the Northamptonshire spreadsheet.
  • 21 May 2018
    Children's Geographies (Changes)
    A new geotype (geography) is available on Northamptonshire Analysis showing data for the seven new 'NCC Children's Localities 2018'.

    There are no map/graph views, but the following batches of data have been aggregated up from LSOA to the new Children's Locality geography within the standard dataviews :
    …. Pupil Characteristics Data – Reception &123Years, Primary, Secondary, All.
    …. The main population dataviews (but excluding the 5 year age band by gender dataview).
    …. Educational Achievement data (Foundation Stage, KS2, KS4).
    …. Other data, within the original Children’s Centre Resources Area on NA, which is available at LSOA level to allow the aggregations.

    Additionally changes have been made to the access levels for the old 'Children's Centre Reach Area (May 2013)' geography. These are now only available for those who have a registered login with Northamptonshire Analysis and a valid NCC email address.

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