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Northamptonshire Analysis
The authority on Northamptonshire statistics

2016-Base ONS Population Projections

01 June 2018

A spreadsheet containing the Northamptonshire Population Projections from the Office of National Statistics' 2016-MYE-Base release is now available on Northamptonshire Analysis in the RESOURCES section of the Population & Census theme. The projections are available at Borough/District, County, Regional and National levels (although please note for the single year of age projections and the old-age dependency ratios, county level figures have had to be aggregated from the Borough/District stats).   Additionally, the 5 year age band projections are available for our basket of Economic Comparators.

The projections run for 25 years up to 2041.   The spreadsheet contains graphs showing the change in population and ranks growth over 10 years and 25 years across the country as a whole, highlighting the rankings of Northamptonshire's authorities.

The ONS have made improvements to their methodology with this 2016-based release (for more information see the ONS QMI document Section 6, link at the end of this newsitem).   Please remember these are PROJECTIONS NOT PREDICTIONS and that the ONS warns that "projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward" (2016 National Report, Section 3).

Some key points are :
....   Northamptonshire's total population is projected to grow by 16.4% over the next ten years compared to 12.1% across England as a whole. This ranks Northamptonshire as the English County with the second highest projected growth over this time period (behind Kent).
....   Amongst the county's boroughs and districts, 10-year projected growth percentages range from 31.5% in Corby (second only to Tower Hamlets) to 11.2% in Wellingborough.
....   Northamptonshire's proportion of persons aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 17.6% in 2016 to 20.5% in 2026 and further to 25.5% in 2041.
.... The ONS state that by 2026, 97 BDU authorities are projected to log at least a quarter of their population as over-65. Northamptonshire's boroughs and districts are not in this group but Daventry and East Northamptonshire are both not far off with a projected 24.4%.
....   Compared to some other English & Met Counties, Northamptonshire does not have a high Old Age Dependency Ratio (in 2016 ranked 26th of 33 with an OADR of 302.9, just 0.1 above the national average). Over the next ten years, however, Northamptonshire's projected growth for this indicator is the 11th highest amongst the English & Met counties, but longer term growth to 2041 is slightly lower down the rankings in 13th place.

Useful Links :
ONS National Statistical Bulletin 2016-Base
ONS Quality & Methodology Information
ONS 2016 Methodology Document
ONS Frequently Asked Questions
Links to all these are also available in the metadata attached to the Northamptonshire spreadsheet.

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